The year opened with Russia and Turkey as enemies, exchanging economic blows and locked in proxy warfare across Syria in the aftermath of Turkey's treacherous shoot down of a Russian SU-24 bomber in November 2015. 2016 closes with Turkish president turned despotic strongman Recep Tayyip Erdoğan accusing Washington and its allies of supporting not only the Kurdish militants of the PKK but also the Islamic State terrorists, plus rumors of Russian air strikes in support of Turkey's troops struggling to make gains against Daesh at al-Bab.
As the Russia Analyst predicted as far back as August 7, 2015, the Obama Administration would eventually try to make Erdogan the fall guy for the spectacular rise of ISIS, only to have the Sultan blame Washington in reply. We also predicted along with the rest of team RogueMoney and some friends of RM such as Dr. Jim Willie and Joseph P. Farrell, that Turkey would pivot East -- as the alternative would be winding up 'on the menu' with its own territorial integrity in question due to the Kurdish issue. We just did not envision it occurring in this way, with the Russian-Turkish-Iranian troika talking about a nationwide ceasefire across Syria in 2017, and the U.S. State Department and EUnuchs pointedly NOT invited to the peace table...
The Empire -- or its Saudi Arabia-n and Qatari foreign legion with some wink and nod help from the dirty deep state in 'the (post)West' -- has struck back. After whining for weeks about the Syrian Arab Army grinding down Washington and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)'s special snowflake jihadists and vastly exaggerating the number of east Aleppans held hostage by the same, the lame duck Obama Administration has admitted the proxy battle for Aleppo is lost. Yet hundreds of kilometers to the south, in the desert oasis city of Palmyra, ISIS has struck back without a single documented U.S. led coalition air strike to check its advance. Just like when ISIL conquered the city in 2015, executing its archaeologist in residence while pillaging priceless civilizational heritage, and Obama didn't permit a damned thing to be bombed near the Daeshbags.
Robert Ford, the terrorist empowering former American Ambassador to Syria, and neocon Daeshbag propaganda specialist Michael D. Weiss of The Daily Beast can scarcely contain their glee. Of course, since taking Palmyra seems to be easier than holding it in a valley surrounded by open deserts, the end result is likely to be hundreds of barbecued ISIS terrorists once the Russians, who had pulled out of the city two days before it fell, return with a couple of TOS-1 Buratino air bursting rocket flamethrowers.
Surprise! After blustering that Turkish armed forces entered Syria to topple 'the tyrant Assad', the Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has backed off under pressure from Russia. As RT.com reports:
“The aim of the Euphrates Shield Operation [in northern Syria] is not any country or person, but only terrorist organizations,”Erdogan said Thursday, as quoted by the Hurryiet Daily News.
“No one should doubt this issue that we have uttered over and over, and no one should comment on it in another fashion or try to derail it,” he added.
At long last, the end game for Aleppo if not the Syria war is in sight. After over five years of fighting and fourteen months of a Russian air campaign, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and its Lebanese Hezbollah, Palestinian, Iraqi Shi'a militia and Iranian allies have achieved a decisive victory in Aleppo. For the Syrian government, victory in Aleppo's bloody urban battle is their Stalingrad -- and for the jihadists sponsors in Riyadh, Doha, Ankara as well as London, Paris and Washington -- a stinging defeat.
Over the weekend jihadist lines collapsed in northern Aleppo, resulting in the loss of 40% of the territory the takfiris controlled in the eastern part of the city. With a Trump presidency eliminating hope of any Hillary Clinton imposed no fly zone and the failure of multiple counteroffensives intended to break the SAA's siege, the 'rebranded' Al-Qaeda/Jabhat Fateh al-Sham-led coalition in the eastern part of city has been bled of fighters, ammo and above all, morale.
Even though there's yet to be an 'October Surprise' incident of actual combat or collision between U.S. and Russian air forces over Syria, that won't stop the pro-Hillary Deep State from pushing the next best thing: close encounters in the skies over the war torn country. Where, let the Russia Analyst remind you, the Russians operate at the invitation of the internationally recognized government in Damascus, whereas the U.S. has no mandate under international law to be present.
The Donald, with the help of Matt Drudge, is calling out Hillary Clinton's plans for a Syria 'no fly zone' for what they are -- a trigger for World War III. As the presidential contenders enter the home stretch and Trump gains confidence from early voting returns and huuuuuuge rallies in the state of Florida, while Hillary's camp can barely fill community college lecture halls or high school gymnasiums in the Sunshine State.The Donald is positioning himself to pick up disaffected Bernie Sanders voters that HRC's campaign effectively disenfranchised by calling her the war candidate. This strategy may be enough to persuade many self-proclaimed progressives or liberals who would never vote for Trump to either stay home on Election Day, or support the Green Party's Dr. Jill Stein, who has also spoken out against Hillary's push for war with Russia over Syria.
While the Obama Administration appears to be flailing about for some action to look tough on ISIS or the Russians ahead of the November 8th U.S. elections, in Syria the pro-government forces continue to advance in Hama province and reduce the jihadist stronghold of east Aleppo.
The announcement by the Assad government that various rebel factions are in negotiations to leave behind the Al-Qaeda loyal Nusra die hards as well as reports that a high level Turkish delegation is headed to Damascus for talks are indicative of the tide turning decisively against U.S./GCC proxies. It would appear that any neocon hopes for a radical revision of facts on the ground will have to await the arrival in the White House of their war queen Hillary Clinton. With the Turks abandoning their Nusra proxies in Aleppo, only direct American intervention that risks all out war with Russia can save Washington's decade-long project to topple Assad.
After a heated war of words this week over Syria, signs this weekend are that Moscow's warning that any more bombings 'accidental' or deliberate of combined Syrian/Russian forces would result in the shoot down of American-led coalition aircraft has cooled off Washington's war hawks somewhat. Or more accurately, having exploited the Russian card with a politicized report from the intelligence community officially blaming Moscow for the 'hack' (insider leak, cough cough) of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) on Friday, it isn't clear whether the Obama Administration intends or needs a direct clash of arms in Syria before Election Day. However, the dark side or 'dirty Deep State' as with the Maidan snipers killings, the Odessa massacre in Ukraine or the false flag shoot down of MH17 in the Donbass may have other ideas...and could be preparing a nasty October Surprise.
The Russians have had enough of Washington's threats to attack Syrian Arab Army units -- while claiming they will avoid deliberately striking Russian forces stationed in the country. The Russian Ministry of Defense sent out Major General Igor Konashenkov on Thursday, October 6, 2016 to warn the 'hotheads' of the CIA and Pentagon, who have previously been accused by Moscow's Foreign Ministry of undermining peace talks between Sergey Lavrov and John Kerry, of several facts...
As the calendar shifts from Black Moon September to October Surprise season, and while Team RogueMoney has been keeping you up to date with the latest on the Deutsche Bank death watch, the Russia Analyst has been closely observing 'death race Damascus'. While our initial instinct is that Washington is mostly bluffing and putting out hot air about military action against Syrian and by extension Russian forces in response to Damascus' offensive against jihadist held east Aleppo, we remain concerned that the stage is being set via massive propaganda for some sort of provocateur-ed confrontation between American and Russian jets or surface to air missiles over Syria.
Certainly, the threats issued by the U.S. State Department spokesman John Kirby declaring Wednesday that Russians will suffer more of their servicemen coming home in 'body bags' and terrorist attacks on their cities and interests (read: Russian embassies and oil workers in Iraq or elsewhere in the Mideast) have been splashed all over Russian television. So too have top Russian commanders and diplomats' response that they take threats to the lives of their citizens very seriously and that the State Department's language is hysterical and completely inappropriate to those who call themselves diplomats. Meanwhile, The New York Times the old Grey Whore 'paper of record' for the country which has backed every U.S. war since Desert Storm if not Vietnam is now demanding in lockstep with the Manhattan-based Council on Foreign Relations what CJCS Marine Gen. Joseph Dunford admitted would start a war with Russia -- military action to stop Syrian and Russian operations.